Judge’s warning provides dilemma for Trump over whether he will risk jail for a political point

Donald Trump and the judge presiding over his hush money trial are staring each other down with profound implications for the former president, the coming election and the rule of law in the United States.

Juan Merchan is now closer than any judge in American history to putting an ex-president behind bars after laying down a red line he says he may have no choice but to enforce if Trump does not start obeying the rules.

Merchan on Monday found Trump had yet again violated a gag order that precludes attacks on witnesses, the jury and others, days after he fined him $1,000 each for nine previous transgressions. But he noted that the defendant wasn’t getting the message and warned he would have to escalate if necessary and appropriate in the future, as much as he sees the option as a “last resort.”

“Mr. Trump, it’s important to understand that the last thing I want to do is to put you in jail,” Merchan said in a surreal moment on Monday morning, directly addressing the presumptive GOP nominee and fining the billionaire defendant another $1,000 over comments about jury selection while clearing him of three other prosecution claims of gag order violations.

The judge’s admonition to Trump, who was seated at the defense table in court, represented an extraordinary reversal of a power dynamic for a former president – a member of an exclusive club that draws ubiquitous deference for life. Trump may be the most famous man in the world and dominate every room he enters, but Merchan is trying to send a message that, in his court, he is the sole source of authority.

But his warning also came across almost as a plea for Trump to desist from the kind of behavior that would force the judge to make his own fateful decision for which he would always be remembered. But he also left the impression that he could not allow the court – or the jury serving in a highly sensitive trial at a moment of extreme political turmoil – to come under attack.

“At the end of the day, I have a job and part of that job is to protect the dignity of the judicial system and compel respect,” Merchan went on. “Your continued violations of this Court’s lawful Order threaten to interfere with the administration of justice in constant attacks, which constitute a direct attack on the rule of law.”

“I cannot allow that to continue.”

The judge’s words put him in a box. If Trump ignores his warning and continues to violate his order, his credibility and his capacity to control his own courtroom mean he may have no choice but to escalate.

His warning also presented the former president – who has weaponized his four criminal indictments into a narrative of political martyrdom – with his own dilemma. Is he willing to test the judge and to continue railing about the jury and witnesses and risk jail – perhaps to bolster a claim of persecution that is the foundation of his bid for a new term? Or will he simply stop just before the line, in a rare example of bowing to an adversary who tried to temper his behavior.

Elie Honig, a CNN senior legal expert, said that he still believed it was unlikely Trump would end up jailed for contempt of court. But he added: “I think the judge has put down a marker. The judge has given Trump every benefit of the doubt when it comes to the gag order.” Indeed, it’s hard to imagine any other criminal defendant enjoying similar latitude from a judge over incessant attacks on the integrity of the trial, the court and the legal system.

The timing of the judge’s warning was significant because several moments of maximum stress are approaching for Trump with testimony expected soon from his former lawyer Michael Cohen and former adult film star Stormy Daniels.

Jack O’Donnell, former president and chief operating officer of Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino, questioned whether Trump would be able to maintain control – especially in his late-night social media posts. And he told CNN’s Erin Burnett: “The bigger question is whether he will purposely violate the order, and I think there is a very good chance that he will just test the limits because that is part of Trump’s DNA.” O’Donnell added: “I think there is a piece inside of him that he wants to dare this man to put him in jail.”