Jamie Dimon thinks the odds of a ‘soft landing’ are about half of what Wall Street expects

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon ranked geopolitics as his top worry and said he’s less optimistic than Wall Street observers about a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy in an interview on Thursday.

Sitting down with Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Emma Tucker, Dimon tackled a range of topics — from his morning routine to his outlook on life after his emergency heart surgery in 2020.

Reflecting themes in his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders this month, Dimon doubled down on his cautious view on a soft landing and the threat of an “economic disaster” if Ukraine loses its war with Russia.

“I’m a little worried [that] if Russia wins the war, you’d kind of see the world enter a little bit of chaos as people realign alliances and economic relationships,” Dimon said.

While Wall Street speculators seem to be betting on a roughly 70% chance of the U.S. avoiding a recession through a soft landing for the economy, Dimon said he sees the odds being about half of that.

The green economy, the remilitarization of the world, fiscal deficits and geopolitics are all factors that could keep inflation higher for longer, he said.

“When I look at the range of possible outcomes, you can have that soft landing,” Dimon said. “I’m a little more worried it may not be so soft and inflation may not quite go away as people expect. I’m not talking about this year — I’m talking about 2025 or 2026.”

While the economy continues to do well for the majority of Americans due to low employment, rising home values and stronger stock prices, he said there’s a threat that stagflation — a phenomenon marked by slowing economic growth and persistent inflation, most notably seen in the 1970s — could return.

“It looks a little bit like the ‘70s to me,” Dimon said. “Things looked pretty rosy in 1972. They were not rosy in 1973. Don’t get lulled into a false sense of security.”

Asked whether he would consider becoming Federal Reserve chairman or Treasury Secretary, Dimon said he would not take either job.

Dimon said he has “enormous respect” for Jerome Powell when asked whether the Fed chairman is doing a good job, with the central bank recently signaling that it’s not in a hurry to cut interest rates.

“I think the Fed was probably late in raising rates,” Dimon said. “They caught up. They’re probably right in watching right now. We don’t know what’s going to happen. They might as well wait.”

Dimon declined to state a preference for a presidential candidate, and said JPMorgan would work with whoever occupies the White House.

President Joe Biden’s economic policies are working “partially,” he said, party due to huge amounts of economic stimulus such as 2021’s bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Dimon praised.

But he noted that the bottom 20% of wage earners in the U.S. continue to struggle. “If you go to rural America or inner cities, I’m not sure they feel they’re being lifted up by this economy,” he said.

Asked about the war in the Middle East, Dimon said Israel has a right to defend itself and that Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack was “unjustifiable.”

Since his 2020 heart surgery and a bout with cancer before that, Dimon said he’s become more deliberate in life, and his interest in wanting to help the Western world has increased.

On his days off, Dimon said he enjoys spending time with his wife and daughters and has started playing squash again.

“I love my family, so we have a lot of family dinners when I’m around,” Dimon said. “We hike together. We take vacations together. I love wine. I love music.”

His daily routine includes waking up as early as 4:30 a.m. and reading five newspapers. He also believes that working five days in the office is “ideal.”

He avoids social media but said he pulls up popular platforms such as TikTok once a year to see what’s happening on them.

“I am not a fanatic on the phone. … I think people should spend a little less time on that and a little more time thinking,” Dimon said. “I’m not on any social media.”

JPMorgan Chase’s stock has risen 13.7% so far in 2024, compared to a 5.9% gain by the S&P 500